Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Nikolai Karpitsky. April 24, 2022. Ukraine. Sixtieth day of war

The battle for Donbass has been going on for several weeks and it's been a week since a new Russian offensive was launched. Last Monday began with the news that the occupiers had taken Kremennaya. While you are in the rear, you can theorize about the situation at the front, but when you yourself are in the front-line zone, there is no time, you need to orient yourself immediately, because life depends on it. They took Kremennaya, what's next? Will they come out to Liman and then start shelling us? Or will they take Rubezhnoe-Severodonetsk-Lysichansk into the ring? Or maybe the Ukrainian military simply retreated to more advantageous positions to make it easier to defend? On the first day, you don't understand anything. Who wins? What to fear? A day later, it became clear that the Ukrainian military was gradually retreating to pre-prepared lines and continuing to defend successfully.

I do not listen to Russian and all other media inclined to lie, even “for objectivity”, to “know a different point of view”. For a very simple reason - after dealing with someone who is prone to lie, I will know less than I did before communication. The problem is not the lack of information, but an overabundance of information noise that needs to be filtered out somehow. As well, I weed out analysts who, although they do not lie, and even conduct an honest analysis, however, sin by arbitrary generalizations that are later presented as truth. For example, if there are statements: “the Ukrainian army in the coming days will not hold Popasnaya and Rubezhnoe, partially taken by the Russian army”, you can not read further. Even if that’s true, the point here is something else, that this analyst values the construct in his own head more than reality itself. However, in reality, war is unpredictable, because it is impossible to take into account all the factors that affect the outcome of the battle.

In modern wars, it is not the number of troops that is decisive, but the supply of ammunition and fuel. The outcome of the battle can be decided by who runs out of shells first in some key area of the battle. Let's say you have a few dozen left, and the enemy no longer has them, and he retreats. Here, for some time, the opportunity opens up to go to the rear or cut the key supply line, and then the entire enemy defense line begins to crumble. It is impossible to foresee such occurrences. You can only analyze the situation that has developed at the moment.

Now it is raining, it is very difficult to advance, especially from the Izyum direction, because there are continuous ravines. Nevertheless, Russian troops are advancing, despite the losses. Their successes are insignificant, however, when they are thirty kilometers from us, every kilometer of advance is perceived with great anxiety. After all, if they deploy artillery near Slavyansk, they will demolish the city. So far, the Ukrainian troops do not allow them to do this, so only rockets reach Slavyansk. Although Kramatorsk suffers more from them, despite the fact that it is deeper in the rear.

Cannonade can be heard all week, even in the rain. Yesterday was especially intense. Easter night was also greeted with a siren. Among the attackers there are those who raped and killed children in Bucha. Therefore, no one has any illusions about what will happen if the invaders enter the city. But I don't think they will. There's a good chance of keeping them at bay until new weapons arrive. We just need to hold out for another week, maximum - two.

Today is Easter, the day of victory over death. However, Putin would not be Putin if he had not tried to kill someone for this holiday. Cultural consciousness is arranged in such a way that we symbolically correlate what is happening with samples from real or sacred history. Therefore, regardless of the attitude to religion, biblical associations still arise. In this regard, the killings by a rocket attack on Odessa before the Easter holiday are perceived as symbolic complicity in the execution of Jesus Christ. 

Which of the participants in this New Testament story can be likened to Putin? I think no one. At least among people. After all, all the accomplices in the crucifixion of Jesus Christ, they did not want his death, they simply acted according to circumstances. Unlike Putin, none of them wished death for the sake of death itself. Perhaps Putin is trying on the role of the one who tempted Christ? 

And what symbolic role have Russian church leaders - Sergey Ryakhovsky and Kirill Gundyaev - chosen for themselves in this holiday? I think that they placed themselves below the members of the Sanhedrin, who sentenced Jesus to death. For behind the cruel sentence was, though erroneous, yet still a good intention to save Jerusalem from destruction. And below the crowd, shouting: “Crucify!” for unlike the crowd they perfectly understand what they are doing. And even lower than Judas, who probably hoped that Jesus would not let himself be crucified and raise up a rebellion. When Judas realized he had made a mistake, he repented and hanged himself. These men have no hint of repentance. They can only be likened to those authoritative and well-behaved people in everyday life who encouraged the crowd to shout: “Crucify!” 

Having supported Putin, they became accomplices to his crimes. However, they had the opportunity to at least not spoil the Easter day. It was enough to support Pope Francis’s request for an Easter truce. They did not even dare to do this, and now the sacrifices made by Putin for the Easter holiday, including the death of a three-month-old girl in Odessa, are on their conscience as well.