Tomorrow is May 9. The occupiers did everything to succeed on the Donbass arc by this date, but Ukrainian troops held out. Three weeks ago, the invaders threw all their forces into the offensive, in the first days captured Kremennaya, Yampol and got stuck near Liman. All this time there were fierce battles. The enemy has a huge advantage in artillery shells, but the positions of the Ukrainian troops are much more convenient for defense. A wooded ridge stretches along the southern shore of the Seversky Donets. From there you can see the roofs of the Liman houses, which is ten kilometers away. This is an ideal place for artillery, which paralyzed the advance of Russian troops. However, the offensive potential of the invaders is still significant. Yesterday they entered the village of Shandrigolovo in the north of Liman. Today it was reported that the enemy managed to seize the ruins left of the town of Popasna.
The battles near Slavyansk this week were very hot, they fought even at night. It is here that the density of Russian troops is highest, although the terrain is completely unsuitable for an offensive - it is full of ravines, hills and forests. You can advance either along the road, which is shot through, or along the paths. All this time I wondered whether Slavyansk would survive or share the fate of Rubezhnoye and Popasnaya. Sometimes the shooting was very close, there’s a smog and the smell of burning in the city. Finally, yesterday, I noticed that the cannonade was heard much farther than usual. Obviously, there was a counterattack, and the enemy was thrown another ten kilometers away from us and from the railway connecting Donbass with the rest of Ukraine. At the same time, near Kharkov, Ukrainian troops significantly pushed the invaders away from the city. Hotheads called this the beginning of a counteroffensive, but it is still far from it, although successful counter-attacks are encouraging.
I also hoped that by May 9 Putin would have exhausted all his reserves and that the Ukrainian army would launch a counter-offensive, but the war is dragging on. The occupiers can still pose a threat of breakthrough in certain areas or attrit in endless skirmishes, having an unlimited resource of old equipment and the lumpen to mobilize from depressed cities.
However, Ukraine has much more combat-ready reserves that have not yet been put into action. Thanks to Lend-Lease, there is a unique opportunity to transfer the army to western weapons. Moreover, it is possible to create new military units from scratch according to NATO standards. If this succeeds, the counter-offensive losses will be reduced manifold. But this will take several months, which means that the plans for the liberation of Ukraine are being postponed, at least until fall.
However, knowing the Ukrainian temperament, I can say that the Ukrainian army will not sit on the defensive all this time. The rearmament of artillery on the front line is already underway. Now the Ukrainian military will shoot the last Soviet-made shells and send the Soviet howitzers into scrap metal. They are already being replaced by Western-style howitzers, which hit farther and more accurately. While the Russian military will be defeated in artillery duels, small detachments of Ukrainian infantry under the cover of modern drones will be able to crush the enemy’s rear. Under these conditions, Putin will constantly pull up new reserves of obsolete equipment, not to win, but to wear down the Ukrainian troops. From his position, there is a double win here: on the one hand, this will force the Ukrainians to waste ammunition, on the other hand, it will allow getting rid of extra mouths in depressed cities. Guided by this approach, he is already mobilizing in Donetsk and Lugansk, and then throwing unprepared recruits into battle. In the near future, he will spread this practice throughout Russia, first in small depressed cities, and then everywhere.
Today is May 8 - Victory Day over fascism. Historical analogies involuntarily suggest themselves: Putin's Russia as the reincarnation of Hitler's Germany, while Ukraine playing the role of Britain in 1940, which single-handedly withstood against Germany and undermined the power of many times superior German aviation, turning the tide of World War II. Now Ukraine is saving the world from fascism in exactly the same way, by grinding the Russian army in its fields.
It is important to determine what is considered a victory. Churchill refused to take a position of non-intervention in exchange for the security of the country, because for him victory meant the destruction of fascism. Nor will it be a victory for Ukraine simply to liberate all its territories. While this will be a huge success, it will mean only a temporary truce, not a victory. Now, as then, only the destruction of fascism itself can be considered a victory. After Ukraine defeats the invading army, it will be the international coalition that will be achieving victory. However, the voice of Ukraine will be the most significant. And here we should not give in until the colonial system of government, which makes Russia dangerous to the rest of the world no matter who comes to power there, is destroyed.
Victory Day is an occasion to draw another important analogy with Britain, namely, how quickly it was able to restore peaceful life, becoming one of the strongest powers in the world. Ukraine will also get such a chance. The first years after the victory, it will have great authority and credit of trust as a country that saved the world from fascism. The whole world will help it recover. Huge investments in the construction sector will restart the economy. The surge of interest in Ukraine all over the world will open up new opportunities for the development of cultural ties. But here people have a question. After all, so many opportunities have already been missed! How this time, after the victory, not to miss these opportunities?
I'll try to answer briefly. After any revolution, power passes to the most organized part of society. In Ukraine, this part was the oligarchs and the bureaucracy. An alternative to them can only be civil society, which exists in Ukraine, but it is not organized enough to become the main political force. After victory, therefore, resources must be invested not only in the economy and culture, but also in the development of civil society. Every city needs a platform for communication that will allow members of the public and all active people to communicate personally. It takes very little money to do this, but in the conditions of such communication it will no longer be possible to hide anything from the public. If this can be done, all the actions of the authorities will be transparent to the public, which simply will not allow theft or inefficient use of funds for the restoration of the country.
