The shelling of Kramatorsk was heard again tonight, and yesterday our town was under fire. A S-300 missile hit a private house, a woman was wounded, her elderly mother was killed. This is our daily life, so constantly. Victory Day over fascism was also celebrated in the midst of sirens. For us it is a day of remembrance of the victims, for the necro-imperialists - a day of festivity. Of course, Russian necrophilism differs from Hitler’s Nazism, but both are varieties of fascism from a scientific point of view. Who would have thought that after 78 years fascists will celebrate victory over fascism by firing 25 rockets on cities of Ukraine!
In winter, they shot at transformers to freeze us out. We had to stay without electricity, but it was calmer. Now again, residential areas have become the main target of shelling. Air raids are often heard, however, missile strikes are still unexpected when there is a lull. Therefore I do not react to either sirens or explosions, and there is still nowhere to hide. When rockets hit Kramatorsk, the sound is distant and dull, when they hit us, it's vibrant. If in our district, the sound is very harsh and the windows rattle. But it doesn't happen every day, not to compare with how it was last summer.
When the explosion is very close, it's a shame to admit, but the first thought is a selfish one: "Good thing it wasn't me!" Then, you're waiting for the rest of the missiles to pass by, and soon everything will go silent. As soon as the shelling subsides, you realize that someone may now have been killed or crippled. Public outcry is caused by terrible shots from Uman, Dnipro, Kherson, where dozens of people die in their apartments, in shops, at bus stops, photographs of the happy faces of mothers with children who are no longer there. But aside from that, people die in their apartments from shelling every day, you simply cannot remember everyone. Start getting used to the daily routine of death, and that’s the worst part.
During the shelling, I involuntarily calculate the probabilities. Let's say there are six explosions. Our city is stretched for ten kilometers, and the probability that one of the missiles will hit exactly my house is a fraction of a percent. If you are outside, the probability of getting hurt increases several times, but it's still not much. A kind of "devilish Russian roulette". If in "Russian roulette" the probability of a blank shot is significant, in "devilish roulette" missiles kill someone anyway. The decrease in the probability of death is achieved not by a blank shot, but by increasing the number of people exposed to mortal danger, so it's a win-win for the devil or whoever leads the shelling.
There is a huge difference between episodic and constant shelling. In Bakhmut, the probability of survival is small, but, unlike Mariupol, the orcs could not surround it. Mariupol residents had to fight for survival, breaking out of the city through checkpoints where they were beaten, along roads that were shelled. It is still unknown how many died there. Obviously, many and many tens of thousands of people, but how many exactly - it's even scary to think about. Compared to Mariupol, we are very lucky. We are not bombed by aviation, and after a missile hits a residential building, rescuers dig out the victims. There was no one in Mariupol to do this.
One of my ordinary days. I gave a lecture to my students, and want to limber up. The day is sunny, warm and quiet. I rode my bike to the supermarket. As soon as I open the door, a loud explosion is heard somewhere nearby. By the sound - a powerful rocket, a kilometer and a half or two from us. There is no siren - they still do not have time to turn it on in case of such single attacks. And you can't hide from them in a bomb shelter. I don't even know where the bomb shelter is. The only thing left to do is to ignore the danger. So did the people around me, walking between the shelves, paying at the checkout. Several more explosions. I return home, a view of Karachun opens in front of me, and to the left of it, two columns of smoke rise above the city.
Such shelling has become a daily routine, they no longer disrupt the usual rhythm of city life. They correspond to the first level of danger to which any resident of Ukraine is exposed in any city, because there are no safe places now. Anyone at any time can die from a missile attack at home. Such missiles are very powerful and are capable of bringing down an entire section of a high-rise building. However, few missiles are fired in a single attack, and even those are dispersed throughout Ukraine, so many ignore this level of danger.
The second level of danger is when the city begins to be systematically shelled with Hurricane or Smerch MLRS, as they shelled Slavyansk last summer. Rockets are weaker, a single strike can destroy several apartments, but the attacks are much more intense and can last for an hour or two. Here the probability of getting killed increases manifold, and there is no way to walk around the city. However, the orcs do not have enough MLRS to destroy the entire city, so more than 80% of the destruction is done with cannon artillery. When the orcs attacked the city from Izyum and Liman last summer, they only had to deploy howitzers in our direction to destroy Slaviansk. In desperate fighting, the Ukrainian military did not allow this to happen.
Being in the target area of the cannon artillery corresponds to the third level of danger. There is already a very high chance of dying in your flat, but it is possible to take refuge in a shelter that cannot be hit by artillery shells. However, artillery can keep hitting for weeks and months, so sooner or later everything can be destroyed to the ground. The fourth level of danger is when there are urban battles. The Russian army does not know how to storm cities without destroying them to the ground. In these conditions, you can survive only if you have really good luck. The highest level is the total destruction of a besieged city by air, when bomb shelters were turned into mass graves, as was the case in Mariupol.
In recent months, I have been very upset that we had to retreat in the face of dumb orc infantry attacks due to a lack of the most primitive anti-personnel weapons. Now I’m watching the enemy artillery beat out, and the optimism is growing again. Something is happening at the front, I don't understand what exactly, and that's a very good thing. For if I understood, it would mean that our offensive plans were revealed. Since they are not disclosed, it makes no sense to read analysts' forecasts.
